4 Reasons Why the 2024 Election Will Differ from 2020

Although the 2024 election will have the same candidates as in 2020, changes in policy and current issues will lead to different debates and campaigning strategies.

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. AFP; Getty Images

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1. Trump and Biden have both been president.

The 2024 election is unique in contemporary elections because both of the candidates have been president. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden were voted to be president in the last two elections. Because of this, many people will base their vote choice on incumbent performance, comparing the executive work of both Trump and Biden. The candidates will focus on promoting the work they did while in office to show constituents how they will continue to implement policy if given the chance.

Furthermore, the candidates cannot count on the people who voted for them in previous elections to vote for them again. For example, voters without a strong connection to a particular party that voted for Biden in 2020 may be unhappy with his executive work and turn towards Trump for a change in legislation.

2. The impact of Trump's indictments.

A unique aspect of the 2024 election is the impact of the former president’s indictment and impeachment on vote choice. In December 2019, President Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for crimes including abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

The indictment of Donald Trump for conspiring and encouraging the storm on the US Capitol in 2021 may also impact the 2024 election. Trump was indicted for inciting the attack by repeating false claims of election fraud.

According to the New York Times, many supporters of Trump in 2016 and 2020 have “moved on.” Many of these former supporters became concerned with the “pro-Trump MAGA” politics and the Republican party moving farther right.

3. The performance of the incumbent.

Since Joe Biden is the incumbent president, many voters will make their choice based on his performance. Biden will be subjected to evaluation for his executive work over the past 4 years. Evaluation of incumbent performance is often economically based: Biden's Build Back Better Plan. Voters are more likely to evaluate based on societal opinion than personal opinion. This means that many voters will turn to the media to evaluate Biden's work as president and then decide how they will vote.

4. The change in policy issues.

The 2024 election has new important policy issues than those of 2020. In 2020, COVID-19 was a major issue in politics with legislations on masking and social distancing holding high importance. The impact of COVID-19 in 2024 is less relevant compared to newer policy issues. A recent issue that is likely to hold importance in the 2024 election is foreign policy relating to the Israel-Hamas war. Both Trump and Biden have different views on the issue, so it is likely to be discussed in debates. An issue that will remain important from 2020 to 2024 is abortion rights. With the overturn of Roe v. Wade, the two candidates will likely discuss their views on the court’s decision to sway pro-choice and pro-life constituents to their side.